The future of mortgage interest in 2024 may seem like a matter of chance. However, interest rates are influenced by some factors such as economic conditions, central banks fiscal policies, inflation rates or geopolitical events.
We tell you in detail what to expect from mortgage rates and the real estate market in Spain for 2024 👇🏼
Based on the past: this is how mortgage rates evolved in 2023
As previously mentioned, predicting mortgage rates requires careful consideration of different factors. While there is no definitive answer, it’s possible to make an approximation of future mortgage rates based on them.
Spain is currently facing high inflation, with a peak of 10.8% in July 2022, along with increasing geopolitical tensions. These factors may have contributed to the slowdown of the Spanish real estate market, which saw a 25% decrease in the number of signed mortgages in 2023.
Looking ahead to next year, some “green shoots of optimism” are expected in 2024 mortgage rates. Inflation in Spain is back at 3.5%, and the European Central Bank has kept rates at 4% for the second month consecutive, after 10 previous increases in the inflation rate (from July 2022 to September 2023).
Euribor Evolution in 2023, source: euribor-rates.eu
Our experience: This was the demand for mortgages at Mortgage Direct in 2023
In 2023, Mortgage Direct recorded a significant increase in demand for non-resident mortgages in Spain, despite the mortgage market’s overall slowdown. This could be attributed to the high average interest rates in non-resident countries, where mortgage rates in the United States hover around 8% and 6.5% in the United Kingdom.
It’s plausible that mortgage interest rates in Spain, ranging from 3.5 to 4.5%, are more attractive to non-resident buyers due to this factor.
What is expected this year? Interest Rates and Euribor prediction in Spain in 2024
Euribor forecast in 2024
In Spain, Euribor rates play a crucial role in determining mortgage rates. Projections suggest that these rates will decrease by 2024. ING anticipates a drop in the ECB’s maximum interest rate to 2.5%, while Bankinter assures a 12-month Euribor of 2.2% by the end of the year.
Interest rate trends in 2024
After peaking in 2023, interest rates are expected to stabilize or decline in 2024. This is due to the expected cooling of inflation and the ECB’s monetary policy adjustments.
Evolución del Euribor en 2023, fuente: euribor-rates.eu
What will happen to the real estate market in 2024?
According to experts, the Spanish real estate market is expected to stabilize by 2024. Following a period of increased demand and rising prices, the market may cool down, resulting in more stable or even slightly lower house prices. This variable could also be impacted by economic factors such as inflation and the geopolitical situation.
The previous point, added to the expected decrease or stabilization of interest rates, could positively affect mortgage affordability. However, this point will also depend on the factors discussed above and the general economic outlook.
Challenges and opportunities of the real estate market in 2024
Entering the new year, we find ourselves in a scenario of economic uncertainty but banking sector stability. Here is a breakdown of the current situation:
- The global economic situation is marked by uncertainty. Factors such as inflation rates, geopolitical tensions, and policies from the European Central Bank are yet to be defined. These variables will play a crucial role in the Spanish mortgage market paradigm and will be resolved as we move into 2024.
- The banking sector’s health reflects a trend towards innovation in mortgage products. This is aimed at being more competitive and offering better contracting conditions.
For the best investment areas in the Spanish market, Madrid, Valencia, and Murcia seem to be the most promising options.
Conclusion:
As we have explained in this post, the outlook for the mortgage market in Spain in 2024 looks positive. Despite this, there are certain factors that will be defined as we enter this year.
At Mortgage Direct, we strive to secure exclusive mortgage terms and conditions for our international clients. Our guarantee of profitable and safe investments will assist in finding your dream property in Spain. Contact us today to turn your dream into a reality.
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